Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
